![]() ![]() After 15/03Z, SHRA increasing in coverage with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SCT-BKN clouds at 3k-5k ft AGL thru 15/03Z. Another round of breezy winds will also be possible. However the low does look to bring precip chances starting Sunday into early next week. Still considerable differences for when models begin to bring it onshore. Over the weekend into early next week ensembles bring a closed low down the west coast and have it sit off the southern coast of California before moving inland at some point early next week. Friday the surface pressure gradient sets up southeast Arizona for more strong winds but this time out of the east. By Saturday temperatures will be a few degrees above normal. The cold temperatures will be short-lived as ridging builds in Thursday and Friday. Because of this a Hard Freeze Warning is in effect for all non-mountain zones Thursday morning. Low lying areas in Cochise and Graham County could see lows in the single digits. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s from Tucson south and westward in the teens east of Tucson. Thursday morning will see the coldest temperatures so far this winter with some areas near or at record lows. The Tucson metro area has a 20-50 percent chance for the high temperature to be less than 50 degrees Wednesday. In the wake of the low temperatures will be much colder than normal. Rain amounts in the lower elevations will generally be less than 0.25". Snowfall in the mountains will be heavy, between 8-18 inches, with blowing snow also a threat due to the high winds. Parts of Cochise County below 5000 feet could see 1-2 inches. By early morning snow levels will be around 2000 feet leading to a small chance (~15 percent) chance of snow for locations from Tucson south and east. Initially snow levels will be around 6000 feet then begin to fall after midnight. The bulk of precipitation according to the HREF will fall in the midnight to 6 AM timeframe, which is when the cold front will be passing through. Precipitation chances begin in the White Mountains late this afternoon then spread southward to encompass most of the CWA this evening and overnight. Wind speeds will stay in these ranges through the overnight hours then decrease some Wednesday to below advisory and warning thresholds. In the mountains as well as the Sierra Vista area expect winds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-70 mph. Expect widespread wind speeds 25-35 mph and gusts to 55 mph in lower elevations. Winds have already begun to pick up with a few gusts in the 40s and 50s in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. It will bring very strong winds, snow, rain, and cold temperatures. This low is currently over the Great Basin and will move southward through Arizona tonight into Wednesday. DISCUSSION.Visible satellite shows evidence of gravity waves in advance of an upper level low that will drive our weather over the next couple of days. A gradual warming trend is expected into the weekend with another storm expected late in the weekend into early next week. Then cold air behind the storm will result in very cold low temperatures Thursday morning. Precipitation will move south over the area tonight and continue into Wednesday morning with snow levels dropping to around 2,000 feet. Blowing dust is a possibility across the lower elevations with blowing snow over the higher terrain. SYNOPSIS.An approaching storm will result in strong, potentially damaging winds developing this afternoon and continuing through tonight. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 231 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023 ![]()
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